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What makes an expert an expert? Their knowledge of the past. They know
what used to work in extreme detail. In fact they have built a career and
a reputation that expertise. Now put a new idea in front of the expert.
Are they going to declare themselves completely invalid? Or are they going
to puff themselves up and make complete idiots out of them for all of
history to see?
See also
conservatism*, constraints, criticism*,
on experts*, judgement, rationality,
words
Quotes by Experts, later proved terribly wrong
‘Your cigar-ettes will never become popular.’
— F. G. Alton (cigar maker, turning down Mr. John Player), 1870
‘It is an idle dream to imagine that automobiles will take the place of
railways in the long distance movement of passengers.’
— American Railroad Congress, 1913
‘The foolish idea of shooting at the moon is an example of the absurd length
to which vicious specialization will carry scientists working in thought-tight
compartments.’
— A. W. Bickerton (physics professor), 1926
‘Has there ever been danger of war between Germany and ourselves, members of
the same Teutonic race? Never has it even been imagined.’
— Andrew Carnegie, 1913
‘I’m just glad it’ll be Clark Gable who’s fallin’ on his face and not Gary
Cooper.’ — Gary Cooper, turning down lead in ‘Gone With The Wind’
‘What sir! You would make a ship sail against the wind and currents by
lighting a bonfire under her decks? I pray you excuse me. I have no time to
listen to such nonsense.’
— Napoleon Boneparte, 1803
‘Sensible and responsible women do not want to vote.’
— Grover Cleveland, 1905
‘We don’t like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out.’
— Decca executive, rejecting the Beatles, 1962
‘While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, commercially
and financially I consider it an impossibility.’
— Lee Deforest (inventor of vacuum tube/electronic valve), 1926
‘Man will never reach the moon, regardless of all the future scientific
advances.’
— Lee DeForest (inventor of vacuum tube/electronic valve), 1957
‘Everything that can be invented has been invented.’
— Charles H. Duell (Commissioner, US Patent Office, in 1899)
‘The phonograph is not of any commercial value.’
— Thomas Alva Edison, 1880
‘There is no plea which will justify the use of high-tension and alternating
currents, either in a scientific or a commercial sense.’
— Thomas Alva Edison, 1889
‘The radio craze…will die out in time.’
— Thomas Alva Edison, 1922
‘There is not the slightest indication that energy will ever be obtainable.
It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.’
— Albert Einstein, 1932
‘War between Japan and the United States is not within the realm of
reasonable possibility. …A Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour is a strategic
impossibility.’
— Major George Fielding Eliot, 1938
‘The abdomen, the chest and the brain will forever be shut from the intrusion
of the wise and humane surgeon.’
— Sir John Eric Ericson, Surgeon to Queen Victoria, 1873
‘Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.’
— Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale, 1929
‘Far too noisy, my dear Mozart. Far too many notes.’
— Emperor Ferdinand of Austria, 1786
‘Aeroplanes are interesting toys but are of no military value.’
— Maréchal Ferdinand Foch, 1911
‘The Edsel is here to stay.’
— Henry Ford II, 1957
‘The Titanic is well able to withstand almost any exterior damage and could
keep afloat indefinitely after being struck.’
— P. Franklin, Vice President, International Mercantile Marine,
April 15th 1912
‘I do not consider Hitler to be as bad as he is depicted. He is showing an
ability that is amazing and he seems to be gaining his victories without much
bloodshed.’
— Mahatma Gandhi, 1940
‘If excessive smoking actually plays a role in the production of lung cancer,
it seems to be a minor one.’
— Dr. W. C. Heuper, National Cancer Institute, 1954
‘Rail travel at high speed is not possible because passengers, unable to
breathe, would die of axphyxia.’
— Professor Dionysus Lardner, 1830
‘Nuclear powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within ten
years.’
— Alex Lewyt, vacuum cleaner manufacturer, 1957
‘Inventions reached their limit long ago and I see no hope for further
development.’
— Julius Sextus Frontinus, prominent Roman engineer (c. 40-103 AD)
‘640K ought to be enough for anybody.’
— Bill Gates, 1981
‘The machine gun is a much overrated weapon; two per battalion is more than
sufficient.’
— General Douglas Haig, 1915
‘I have not the smallest molecule of faith in aerial navigation other than
ballooning.’
— Lord Kelvin, President of Royal Society, 1890
‘X-Rays will prove to be a hoax.’
— Lord Kelvin, President of Royal Society, 1895
‘Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.’
— Lord Kelvin, President of Royal Society, 1896
‘Radio has no future.’
— Lord Kelvin, President of Royal Society, 1898
‘This is the biggest fool thing we have ever done. The bomb will never go
off, and I speak as an expert in explosives.’
— Admiral William D. Leahy, on the atomic bomb, 1945
‘This fool wishes to reverse the entire science of astronomy; but the sacred
scripture tells us that Joshua commanded the sun to stand still, not the earth.’
— Martin Luther, 1540
‘I can accept the theory of relativity as little as I can accept the
existence of atoms and other such dogma.’
— Professor Ernst Mach (as in speed-of-sound measurement), 1913
‘The Internet will catastrophically collapse in 1996.’
— Robert Metcalfe, internet inventor (date unknown)
‘There is no likelihood man can ever tap the power of the atom. The glib
supposition of utilizing atomic energy when our coal has run out is a completely
unscientific Utopian dream, a childish bug-a-boo. Nature has introduced a few
fool-proof devices into the great majority of elements that constitute the bulk
of the world, and they have no energy to give up in the process of
disintegration.’
— Robert Millikan, Nobel prize winner in physics, 1920
‘The most important fundamental laws and facts of physical science have all
been discovered, and these are now so firmly established that the possibility of
their ever being supplemented by new discoveries is exceedingly remote.’
— Forest Ray Moulton, Astronomer, 2935
‘The most important fundamental laws and facts of physical science have all
been discovered, and these are now so firmly established that the possibility of
their ever being supplemented by new discoveries is exceedingly remote.’
— Simon Newcomb, astronomer, 1903
‘It would appear that we have reached the limits of what is possible to
achieve with computer technology, although one should be careful with such
statements, as they tend to sound pretty silly in five years.’
— John von Neumann, computer inventor, 1949
‘Flight by machines heavier than air is impractical and insignificant, if not
utterly impossible.’
— Simon Newcomb, astronomer, 1902
‘When the president does it, that means it is not illegal.’
— Richard Nixon, 1977
‘There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.’
— Ken Olson, President of Digital Corporation, 1977
‘What use could this company make of an electrical toy?’
— William Orton, Western Union President, turning down
Alexander Graham Bell’s
offer to sell his telephone company for $100,000
‘Louis Pasteur’s theory of germs is a ridiculous fiction.’
— Pierre Pachet, Professor Physiology, Toulouse, 1872
‘Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.’
— Popular Mechanics, 1949
‘All the waste in a year from a nuclear power plant can be stored under a
desk.’
— Ronald Reagan, 1980
‘The deliverance of the saints must take place some time before 1914.’
— Charles Taze Russell (founder of Jehovah’s Witnesses), 1910
‘The deliverance of the saints must take place some time after 1914.’
— Charles Taze Russell (founder of Jehovah’s Witnesses), 1923
‘The energy produced by the breaking down of the atom is a very poor kind of
thing. Anyone who looks for a source of power in the transformation of the atom
is talking moonshine.’
— Ernest Rutherford, 1936
‘I should say that no railway locomotive ought to exceet 40 miles per hour on
the most favourable gradient, but on a curved line the speed ought not to exceed
24 or 25 miles per hour.’
— George Stephenson, 1841
‘Such startling announcements as these should be deprecated as being unworthy
of science and mischievious to to its true progress.’
— Sir William Siemens (on Edison’s announcement of light bulb), 1880
‘The abolishment of pain in surgery is a chimera. It is absurd to go on
seeking it today.’
—Dr. Alfred Velpeau, surgeon professor, Paris Faculty of Medicine, 1837
‘Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?’
— Harry Warner (of Warner Bros), 1927
‘I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.’
— Thomas J. Watson Snr., IBM Chairman, 1943
‘We have reached the limits of what is possible with computers.’
— John Von Neumann, 1949
‘With regard to the electric light, much has been said for and against it,
but I think I may say without contradiction that when the Paris Exhibition
closes, electric light will close with it, and no more will be heard of it.’
— Erasmus Wilson, Oxford University professor, 1878
‘I must confess that my imagination, in spite even of spurring, refuses to
see any sort of submarine doing anything but suffocating its crew and
floundering at sea.’
— H. G. Wells, 1901
‘Space travel is utter bilge.’
— Dr. Richard van der Riet Woolley, Astronomer Royal, 1956
‘I confess that in 1901 I said to my brother Orville that man would not fly
for fifty years. Two years later we ourselves made flights. This demonstration
of my impotence as a prophet gave me such a shock that ever since I have
distrusted myself and avoided all predictions.’
— Wilbur Wright, 1908
‘The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to better than a C,
the idea must be feasible.’
— Yale professor, marking paper by Fred Smith, Federal Express founder, on
business principles later used in FedEx
‘Video won’t be able to hold onto any market it captures after the first six
months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.’
— Darryl F. Zanuck, 20th Century Fox, 1946
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